Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Forecast 2025: Buy, Sell or Hold? $215B Revenue & Blackwell AI Dominance
Nvidia (NVDA) quarterly revenue FY2025–FY2026 · Official SEC filings · Stockcripto.com · Not financial advice
- Nvidia’s FY2026 full-year revenue hit $215.9 billion — up 65% year-over-year, from $130.5B in FY2025. Q4 alone: $68.1B.
- Blackwell architecture is sold out — CEO Jensen Huang: “Cloud GPUs are sold out.” Blackwell Data Center revenue grew 17% sequentially in Q2, 25% in Q3, and 22% in Q4 FY2026.
- TipRanks consensus: 39 analysts — 37 Buy, 1 Hold, 1 Sell. Average 12-month price target: $237.21. New street-high: $500 (May 2026).
- China export risk: H20 chip ban caused a $4.5B charge in Q1 FY2026. Zero H20 sales to China from Q2 onwards — partly offset by non-China H20 sales.
- Nvidia announced an $80 billion share buyback and 25x dividend hike in May 2026 — signals massive cash generation confidence.
- Key 2025 drivers: Blackwell Ultra ramp, OpenAI 10GW partnership, Sovereign AI, Automotive ($2.3B annual revenue), agentic AI inference explosion.
- Bear case 2025: $155 (TipRanks low) · Base: $237–$271 · Bull: $314–$500.
Introduction
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has pulled off one of the most extraordinary corporate transformations in stock market history. In FY2025, it reported $130.5 billion in revenue — up 114%. Then in FY2026, it did it again: $215.9 billion, up another 65%. A company generating a quarter-trillion dollars annually from selling chips to power artificial intelligence is not just a stock — it is arguably the single most consequential infrastructure company of the 2020s.
Yet with a market cap of $5.21 trillion (as of May 2026), elevated P/E ratios, China export restrictions biting into revenue, and competition from AMD, Intel, and Google’s custom TPUs intensifying, investors face the most important question in tech investing: Is Nvidia stock still a Buy at these levels?
This comprehensive analysis answers that question using official SEC earnings data, TipRanks and MarketBeat analyst consensus, technical chart analysis, and a full bear/base/bull price scenario table through 2030. You will also get three expert opinions from leading institutional analysts and the five most-searched NVDA questions on Google answered in full.
Nvidia Quarterly Revenue — Official Data (FY2026)
All figures sourced directly from Nvidia’s official SEC filings. This is not speculation — these are the reported numbers:
The Data Center segment dominates at 91% of revenue in Q4 FY2026 — $62.3 billion alone, up 75% year-over-year. Networking revenue hit $11.0B in Q4 (up 263% YoY) driven by NVLink fabric for GB200/GB300 Blackwell systems. Gaming is back: Q4 FY2026 gaming revenue up 47% YoY driven by Blackwell consumer GPUs. Automotive: $2.3B full-year (up 39%) — self-driving platform adoption accelerating.
Current NVDA Price Snapshot
Nvidia Corporation
NASDAQ: NVDA · AI Chips| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Current Price (NVDA) | ~$207 | As of May 22, 2025 (TipRanks) |
| 52-Week High | $236.54 | TipRanks data |
| 52-Week Low | $129.16 | TipRanks data |
| Market Capitalisation | $5.21 Trillion | Largest AI company globally |
| FY2026 Revenue | $215.9 Billion | +65% YoY · SEC official filing |
| Latest EPS (Q4 FY2026) | $1.76 GAAP / $1.62 non-GAAP | SEC Q4 FY2026 8-K filing |
| Next Quarter EPS Estimate | $2.07 | TradingView consensus |
| Next Quarter Revenue Est. | $91.4B | TradingView consensus Q1 FY2027 |
| Gross Margin (Q4 FY2026) | 75.0% GAAP / 75.2% non-GAAP | Best in company history |
| Buyback Programme | $80 Billion (May 2026) | Signals confidence in cash flow |
Technical Analysis
Nvidia stock in May 2025 is consolidating after a strong recovery from the $129 lows. Currently near $207, it is trading above the 50-day MA but slightly below the 200-day MA (the critical level to reclaim). RSI is neutral-bullish at 55 — not overbought. The new $500 street-high analyst target (May 2026) has re-energised bullish sentiment. Key near-term trigger: a close above $210 (200-day MA) would signal the next leg higher toward $237–$270.
Support & Resistance Levels
The $210 (200-day MA) is the critical near-term level. A decisive close above $210 opens a path toward the average analyst target of $237. The PEG ratio of 1.2x is noteworthy — despite the elevated P/E, it suggests that growth-adjusted, NVDA is not dramatically overvalued given 65%+ annual revenue growth. China export restrictions remain the principal downside risk.
Fundamental Analysis
| Metric / Factor | Value / Status | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| FY2026 Revenue | $215.9B (+65% YoY) | 🔺 Very Bullish |
| Q4 FY2026 EPS (GAAP) | $1.76 per share | 🔺 Beat estimates |
| Gross Margin Q4 | 75.0% GAAP | 🔺 Best in history |
| Data Center Revenue Q4 | $62.3B (+75% YoY) | 🔺 Very Bullish |
| Blackwell Architecture | “Sold out” — all hyperscalers | 🔺 Very Bullish |
| China H20 Export Ban | $4.5B charge (Q1 FY2026) | 🔻 Significant Risk |
| $80B Buyback (May 2026) | Announced May 2026 | 🔺 Bullish (capital return) |
| P/E Ratio (current) | ~37x trailing | ➡ Elevated but PEG=1.2x |
| Competition (AMD, Intel) | AMD MI300X gaining share | ➡ Growing but manageable |
| OpenAI 10GW Partnership | Strategic deal — 10 GW of NVDA systems | 🔺 Very Bullish long-term |
| Automotive Revenue FY2026 | $2.3B (+39% YoY) | 🔺 Bullish (new growth pillar) |
| Analyst Rating (TipRanks) | 39 analysts — 37 Buy, 1 Hold, 1 Sell | 🔺 Strong Buy (95%) |
NVDA Price Prediction 2025–2030
Forecasts aggregated from TipRanks, MarketBeat, 24/7 Wall
